Mon, Apr 5, 2010
March 2010 Monster Employment Index: Beyond the Numbers
Posted by Jesse Harriott
There are positive signs in the job market reflected in March’s Monster Employment Index (MEI). We saw a 6% year-over-year (YoY) increase in online recruiting demand in March, the second positive YoY increase in a row. This is a 1% jump from February, which marked the first positive year-over-year increase in 24 months.
Industry Breakdown
The upward trend was broad based across sectors, with growth in industries across the board. There were, however, a few worth mentioning. The real estate, rental, and leasing sector registered one of the steepest growths YoY, but this move upward signifies mostly an improvement from such a deep bottom, with the likely driver being non-real estate rental and leasing activity. Many equipment rental and leasing companies are seeing growth as both corporations and people are renting and leasing equipment, for example, moving trucks to help relocate.
We continue to see increases in health care; interestingly, this remains one of the few sectors that has added jobs during the recession. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the health care industry has actually added 630,000 positions since the start of the recession (in December 2007).
Why the anomaly? Health care, as you can imagine, remains a necessity in any economy. People don’t stop getting sick during a downturn; in fact, we see more health related issues in down markets. Additionally, the U.S. has an aging population, a health care bill that’s weighing on people’s minds, and frankly, a shortage of qualified and talented health care workers to help with the increasing demand. All of these factors coming together make for an interesting story.
For people considering a career change, or students trying to figure out what to major in, I’d put my money on health care any day.
Market Breakdown
The MEI tracks 28 local markets, and most of them saw a year-over-year increase. When we think about some of the markets that are doing better than others, Orlando stands out. We’ve heard a lot about Florida’s economic struggles in the news and in market reports, and while that’s certainly true, Orlando saw both year-over-year and month-to-month growth driven mainly by hiring increases in large sectors like tourism, film and television production, gaming, health care and defense contracting.
Similarly, hard hit areas like Cleveland and Portland, Oregon, saw encouraging gains, but in these as in most local markets, recruiting remains at levels well below pre-recession highs. While current economic conditions remain challenging, we hope that these gains are an early indicator of better days to come.
Looking Ahead
We’ve found the MEI to be a leading indicator of the official payroll numbers released by the government. The MEI measures online job advertising or the intent of companies to hire. If someone posts a job ad online, you assume they have headcount that they’re looking to fill. By contrast, the government is measuring payrolls, reflecting job growth once that hire is made. Traditionally, this means the MEI has led the payroll numbers provided by the government by around 2 months.
This month’s findings inspire optimism, but it’s also important to view them with a certain degree of caution. The nationwide unemployment rate held steady in March at 9.7%. There are still 6 people for every U.S. job opening suggesting we’ve still got a long way to go.
April 5, 2010 at 3:16 PM
What makes Monster think their index is indicative of the market as a whole?
Surely your Index is only representative of how good your sales teams are in certain sectors?
Is there an index of all the job boards anywhere?
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April 5, 2010 at 4:09 PM
Actually, the monster employment index doesn’t just keep tabs on jobs posted on our site. Quite the contrary, the MEI is a broad and comprehensive monthly analysis of U.S. online job demand, based on a real-time review of millions of employer job opportunities culled from a large, representative selection of online career outlets, including Monster, our competitors, and employers’ career sites. So it is considered by many to be a valuable snapshot of employer online recruitment activity nationwide.
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